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| And, and the Navy's, I think long lead material and ability to see into the future is really helped |
| And as they ramp up on these newer programs, you start off with lower margins, but they'll continue to do better and better |
| As we have continue to increase the production and throughput on munitions that will continue to build over time, we've got that fully factored into our plan and there's remains strong demand across Europe and in the United States |
| So in, during our plan horizon, we're quite comfortable that we can drive margin improvement, assuming there is no additional deterioration in the supply chain |
| That said, we accomplished a lot last year and particularly in setting us up for additional revenue growth |
| And in that revenue growth, driving margin improvement that will bring with it additional earnings, which is always, you know, a very strong thing |
| So as we enter this year, the pipeline remains strong and we've got nice solid pace of orders |
| Combat looks like it's well positioned through ‘26 |
| First in aerospace, aerospace supply chain is getting better |
| We project, we single digit growth for this business, but given the size of this business and additional order activity and margin improvement, we see some really nice potential for solid earnings growth |
| And one of the things we're very pleased to see is we have a very robust training program and the new ship builders who are coming through that training program are coming out at higher productivity levels than we had seen before |
| That said, our Navy customer has been very, very good at working with us and understanding the supply chain, perturbations and some of the challenges |
| I think ensures and discipline capital deployment ensures that we'll see a nice growth pattern be ahead of us, and we're pretty excited about it, not without its challenges, but we are like, where we are right now |
| So we came out of it stronger than most of the supply chain, but we were not without our challenges |
| We'll be a very strong converter of cash for the foreseeable future |
| So they're in a good position |
| And I think that that's a healthy way to be |
| What are the key drivers there? Phebe Novakovic So we have good cash flow conversion across almost all of our businesses |
| Phebe Novakovic Well, once again, 3% on 13% I think is pretty impressive |
| This is about the best organic growth we have seen in this company, probably in since the Reagan buildup and this leadership team's focus on its operating performance |
| So I think you'd mentioned, that demand was strong in the fourth quarter |
| Again, reflecting the Navy's needs they've increased and I think quite publicly been open about their need to get the ships turned quickly, so that velocity of contract activity increased and that resulted in increased revenue for us |
| Increased training, putting new workers and new ship builders through that training program has gone very, very well |
| They are a heavy merchant supplier to a lot of the primes, and that's a good place to be, particularly as you see growth in platform businesses, they will grow along with those platform businesses |
| Cai von Rumohr What are the key margin drivers for Gulfstream this year? I mean, where is R&D flat? I mean, because the revenues are up so much, or is R&D to sales down? What about out of sequence work? Is that an issue? G 280 disruptions? What are the things that are moving those margins? Phebe Novakovic So we see margin improvement at Gulfstream, and we'll see over time increased margin improvement |
| But we're pretty encouraged about what we see right now |
| And I would say the United States particularly strong |
| That's actually how we can drive value for our customers, for our people, for our shareholders, increase those earnings that go to naturally increase over the period as our revenue grows |
| I would say they're doing a bit better on their production and testing plan than we had anticipated, but we like where we are right now and with them in terms of how we have de-risked that profile |
| Phebe Novakovic Well, look, service varies and jet service continues strong Gulfstream service continues strong particularly with the increase in the embedded fleet, but our government orders and that is both at Gulfstream and a little less at jet are quite lumpy |
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| That said, there are still elements of the supply chain that are struggling, that manifests itself and in while last, still significant out of station work |
| And as I said earlier, our key challenge then is to increase our profitability and our throughput, that allows Navy to get it ships a little bit faster |
| Cai von Rumohr So if we turn to Marine, EBs material delays, supplier quality problems, they continuing in the first quarter or is it easing up a little bit? Phebe Novakovic In some places, some places are getting better and others are continuing to struggle |
| So for many, many years, fixed price development contracts were taboo because it can -- they can damage the industrial base badly, and the customer ends up not getting a product |
| They're very active in under sea and that as everyone knows it's growing, Cai von Rumohr But so the revenues are down a little bit this year |
| And so what about the margins at technology? I mean, based emission systems has been below, you've been kind of below where you once were |
| So marine revenues kind of really overperformed by a big margin last year |
| And so this year, we see less of that coming through, but managing that 39% increases is challenging |
| You may recall they got hit pretty hard by supply chain shortages, particularly in chips, but not exclusively in chips |
| I mean, basically with ships there is a more forgiving -- it's a fixed price, but fixed price within… Phebe Novakovic Well, forgiving isn't the right word, because that would suggest the Navy's forgiving and the Navy's pretty tough |
| Cai von Rumohr So if we think about margins, you mentioned that's a focus, I mean, everyone is worried about fixed price development that the Air Force programs have in Northrop, Boeing, you name them |
| So as they've come for them, it's coming off of their legacy programs, which has impacted their revenue |
| Any major headwinds that we should think about that could disrupt that kind of a run? Phebe Novakovic Nothing other than the ordinary, unexpected geopolitical events and macroeconomic stress |
| Phebe Novakovic Well, I should -- for those of you who followed us for a while, you know that one of the first things we did when this leadership team took over was shut down our M&A, because a company that had been built on M&A had lost its discipline |
| It's been a big disruption the last couple of years |
| One of the issues is like sort of how far into the future, but it certainly looks like munitions replenishment is going to take a while |
| In a growth environment, cost is often difficult to control overhead in particular |
| And again, to offset some of these cost impacts of delays in supplier and supplier deliveries |
| And I think you've said in the past that you're disinclined to doing an ASR |
| And then, and earnings and margin obviously, and then coming back up slower to ramp new programs |
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