Sentiment Analysis of the earnings transcript to help figure out if there are any bullish or bearish sentiments that could be gathered from it. We're doing ML and AI based analysis on the earnings call to get some more insights.
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| Statement |
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| Etsy Ads was the primary driver of this strength, with continued improvements to add relevance |
| And I think that's an incredibly exciting thing that, we're going to do that we're very focused on right now |
| We also know that if we can provide these in a way that's both reliable and dependable, we should be able to earn both more frequency and higher AOVs, while also still having significant room to continue expanding our active buyer base |
| So what we're looking at that remains in the rest of the quarter, we feel good about being able to step incremental GMS from where we are today |
| We're going to lean in hard to our differentiation and believe we have the financial strength to do so in a sustainable way |
| We had a strong finish to 2023 in the core Etsy marketplace, as well as at our subsidiaries, which collectively brought Q4 in a bit better than expected, as Rachel will review shortly |
| The Etsy marketplace performed well during the holiday season, with our highest-ever Cyber 5 GMS up about 4% year-over-year |
| I'm confident we can get back to the kind of growth that we and all of our stakeholders can be proud of |
| And adjusted EBITDA grew to an all-time quarterly high of $236 million, up nearly 4% from the prior year |
| We are optimistic that the significant productivity and measurable value creation we see from our team can fuel Etsy's growth this year |
| We continue to see attractive organic growth opportunities for Etsy, and we expect to balance capital return, appropriate leverage and liquidity and investments in our business to deliver a long-term shareholder value |
| And free cash flow was very strong at about $666 million |
| Etsy's ability to deliver healthy revenue growth and strong levels of profit and cash flow gives us great confidence in the power of our special financial model and our ability to invest in long-term sustainable growth |
| 2023 was a banner year for our Etsy marketplace product development teams who delivered our highest-ever level of incremental annualized GMS |
| We dramatically improved experiences for buyers, making it easier to find what you're looking for, better at highlighting the best stuff, using new signals and nudges to drive conversion rate, improving reviews and recommendations, and developing new category purchase pathways and experiences |
| And, that slide that had consideration and quality, value and reliability with key initiatives under each, that's a pretty good roadmap for some of the bigger levers of the year |
| Our marketing team was also extremely productive, with memorable above-the-line campaigns contributing to our highest-ever level for buyer intent to purchase on Etsy in our top three countries, increased visibility for seller-funded promotions, scaled social spend and new tools for buyer engagement |
| For the full year, Reverb significantly outperformed the musical instruments industry, and while GMS was about flat, revenue increased on a year-over-year basis |
| We also expect to retain a strong balance sheet with ample liquidity relative to our current leverage levels to manage the business across various macroeconomic cycles and support continued organic investments, as well as capital return to shareholders |
| is a large opportunity for Depop, with the resale market forecasted to be over $40 billion by 2027, growing nine times faster than the broader retail clothing sector |
| And we think that's really healthy |
| and strong growth in revenue |
| International buyer growth remains strong |
| Which is why highlighting the best stuff remains one of our top focus areas, and we're confident that we can get back to growing faster and taking share more broadly |
| And lastly, we did see nice lift from Etsy ads again, and we'll continue to see Etsy ads improvement, as we continue to make investments in the better - and better the search broad relevancy is for Etsy ads higher the conversion rate |
| I'm excited to tell you how and why we believe we can win |
| Depop's performance significantly improved in 2023, returning to healthy year-over-year GMS growth, with very strong double-digit growth in the U.S |
| The good news on that is, it means transaction volumes are actually holding up better than, what those numbers would suggest |
| We believe we have every right to be growing not just positive but faster than e-commerce |
| Following a challenging October, Etsy's marketplace's year-over-year GMS trendline improved in November and December due to the solid holiday performance Josh described earlier |
| Statement |
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| and international markets remaining low, making us cautious in our forecasting at the start of the year |
| Overall, headwinds continued, including pressure on consumer discretionary product spending, softness in the Home & Living category, and a highly competitive retail environment focused on deep discounting |
| As you can see on this chart, after many years of over-performing our sector, it's been difficult to outgrow during the past few years, particularly given the tepid macro climate for consumer discretionary products |
| It remains a challenging macro environment, with consumer sentiment in the U.S |
| You still hear low consumer confidence and concerns about inflation on core things like food prices |
| Note that due to a discrete non-income tax benefit related to Depop, our subsidiaries represented only about a 200-basis-point margin headwind in Q4 |
| Fourth quarter consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin was 28%, at the high end of our latest guidance, but down about 10 basis points from last year, partially due to a lower gross margin, primarily the result of an increase in the cost of refunds for orders not covered by Etsy Purchase Protection, as well as higher marketing spend |
| Our buyers worry about the post-purchase experience |
| Our subsidiaries are expected to pose about a 300-basis-point headwind as their revenue flows through at lower margins, largely because of lower take rates |
| Consolidated GMS for the first quarter of 2024 is currently estimated to decline in the low-single-digit range on a year-over-year basis |
| During the fourth quarter, Etsy marketplace GMS decreased 1.4% year-over-year to $3.6 billion |
| Those are three things that in, the early part of this year, Etsy really wasn't in the game on those three areas and, I think, affected our January's GMS to some extent |
| One of the headwinds we're seeing is AOVs are down |
| It's bad for the brand |
| How are you thinking about helping sellers correct - use correct pricing and not just undercut each other and just be more sophisticated with optimum listing prices? And the second, really, to ask, a common investor concern we hear is really around the ability to grow cohorts |
| In the headwinds for the beginning of this quarter, when we said we were off to a slower start, AOVs are down slightly |
| And we've still just been experiencing a bit, of when you look at the stacking of those cohorts, dealing with the post-pandemic, slight compression coming out of the post-pandemic has -- just provides a bit of a headwind |
| FX benefit moderated to 90 basis points in the fourth quarter, down from the 130-basis-point tailwind in the third quarter |
| So in times when people are really budget constrained, we see them actually -- we see conversion rate across the industry go down |
| However, if our trends fail to improve as we currently expect, this could become a mid-single-digit decline |
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